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Monday, August 26, 2013

We had a one day reversal to the downside today as the Dow opened higher and closed lower.  The most watched index fell 64 points on very light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  We fell apart in the final hour and that isn't bullish.  It is entirely possible that the snap back is over and we fall hard from here.  The McClellan oscillator almost made it back to the zero line.  The trouble here is that there is no volume.  I'm also still thinking that there will be a chance for the major players to get short when they return next week.  But I could be wrong.  The window for collapse remains open.  GE was off over 1/8 and the volume remains light here as well.  Still below the 50 day moving average here.  Gold was off a couple of bucks on the futures but rose some in the aftermarket.  The US dollar was little changed on the session.  The XAU was up 7/8.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on light volume.  Maybe a week or two left for the gold share rally in my opinion.  We are getting almost overbought medium term here.  If stocks drop hard here, they will take the gold shares with them.  Still in the favorable seasonal period for gold.  Stalling here at the $1400 level and that is to be expected.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired.  It's summer, the volume is light but we are in a precarious position.  I do not want to sound like a broken record but the summation index is very close to the zero line and if we break that line, the market will fall apart.  I'm still looking to buy some September OEX puts.  Gold rose in the aftermarket today and it is possible that we could see a flight to safety if things get crazy.  Or we could see everything sell off in a massive decline and margin call.  Or none of that could happen and we move to new highs.  There are always numerous scenarios in this game.  I'm sticking with the call to be careful here and expect some pretty good downside for the stock indices.  We'll keep an eye on things overnight and go from there.  

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