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Friday, August 30, 2013

We closed out August with a loss as the Dow fell 30 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  Haven't made it through the zero line on the McClellan oscillator after 2 attempts.  Next week should tell the story of a collapse or not.  I'd still like to get some September OEX puts if we get a weak volume early week rally.  There was some interesting market action today as we tried to take out 1630 on the S&P 500.  Both times were met with a strong updraft.  Perhaps that level is the line in the sand for what I've been looking for.  Or I could be all wrong.  We'll see.  GE was flat on the day but higher early on.  Oversold short term and almost there medium term.  I don't have any trades in mind here.  The gold futures fell over $15 today and a bit more in the aftermarket.  The US dollar was just a touch higher.  The XAU dropped 1 1/3.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on lighter volume.  The weekly candlestick charts here show bearish pictures.  That will have to turn around quickly or we will see more downside for the gold shares.  My October ABX calls are still showing a profit but they are well off of their highs.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We still have the zero line in the summation index to contend with and that is the key to what happens next in the stock indices.  The short term technicals for the stock indexes are oversold but when the market falls apart, we simply stay oversold.  You can make a bullish case here as well with the technical condition.  However I would remain cautious.  It looks like there is some kind of importance to the 1630 level in the S&P 500.  Keep an eye on that.  Gold came off of its highs for the week and the gold shares did not fare well.  Perhaps I've been in the ABX call trade for too long.  We should get a better idea of where we're going after all the players return next week.  Gold and the gold shares as always can get volatile.  Plenty of charts to check over the long Labor Day weekend along with the geo-political tensions in the Middle east.  It is the unofficial last weekend of summer.  Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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