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Tuesday, August 27, 2013

So here we are.  Are we going lower?  Yes.  Much lower?  Yes.  The Dow fell 170 points today on increased volume.  The advance/declines were 4 to 1 negative.  The summation index continues lower and will be penetrating the zero line.  The headlines don't really matter.  The technical condition of the market does.  We are in the area of a collapse and that doesn't happen often.  Any kind of rally can be shorted.  But I wouldn't expect any rallies from here.  I did place an order for some September OEX puts today but it wasn't filled.  I'll keep trying if we see any positive action.  Margin calls will be coming and everything will be sold.  It doesn't look like we will hold up until Labor Day.  Even some pros will have to miss this one.  GE was down 3/8 and the volume was good.  We are about to break the rising trend line from the start of this year.  The 200 day moving average comes in at about $22.50.  Gold was up over $25 on the futures and the US dollar dropped.  Syria is now trouble that lies ahead in the Middle East.  It's nice to finally see gold move in tandem with the news.  It's been a while for that.  No help for the gold shares though as the XAU fell 5 points.  That's a negative as the gold shares could not follow gold higher.  The daily candlestick chart is now pretty bearish as well.  ABX off 3/4, GG down 1 1/3 and NEM dropped 1 1/8.  Volume was good here.  Plus we opened higher and closed lower.  So near term weakness can be expected for the gold issues.  My October ABX calls lost some ground to day but are still profitable.  Looks like I'll be holding them longer than I expected.  But I do expect this trade to work out OK.  I could be wrong.  Mentally I'm a bit dissatisfied with myself for not already owning some index puts.  I should have reacted better yesterday I suppose.  Regardless, the volatility will create opportunity.  No doubt we're heading lower though.  Things will get interesting.  Gold has risen above $1400 and higher prices are coming.  We are short term overbought though.  I expect the gold shares will eventually catch up with the metal itself.  Probably not anytime soon though.  We'll see how much the foreign markets react to todays negative US action.  I'll be looking to buy some September OEX puts when I can because this decline is going to be much bigger than anyone expects.

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