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Wednesday, August 14, 2013

No expiration upside bias yet this week as the Dow fell 113 points on very light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index continues lower.  The 1680 to 1685 level seems to be the line in the sand for the S&P 500.  If we break that level, we will begin to head lower in earnest.  The McClellan oscillator has been in negative territory for a couple of weeks now.  However the market action we have seen has been sideways and not a decline.  The last time this occurred we saw a decent rally.  I don't know if that will be the case this time.  But I would like to see one more run at the highs to get the September OEX puts.  GE was off 1/8 and the volume remains light.  Heading back to the 50 day moving average here.  Gold came back up $12 on the futures as the US dollar was off just a touch.  The XAU rose almost 5 points.  ABX up 7/8, GG gained 1 1/8 and NEM added 1 7/8.  Volume was good once again for the gold shares.  The gold shares continue to outperform the metal itself and that is bullish.  The volume remains higher on the advances than the declines and that is a positive sign.  There is no mention of the recent upside in gold and the gold shares in the media and that is a plus as well.  So I'm staying with the October ABX call trade for now.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Still waiting for the break out or break down for the stock indices.  The tape action has been really sloppy lately and the negative divergences remain in place.  The volume has really been light as well and that indicates no interest.  It's summer and the major players are on vacation.  That is why taking on a position is even more difficult than usual.  It could all change after Labor Day.  The gold shares are showing some life.  If gold itself can get through the $1350 level, we should see $1400 in the near future.  Hasn't happened yet.  Loads of economic data out tomorrow including consumer inflation.  There will be plenty of reasons for the markets to move.  We'll watch what goes on overnight and take it from there. 

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