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Thursday, August 08, 2013

A weak bounce for the Dow as it gained 27 points on OK volume for summer.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive.  The McClellan oscillator was pretty oversold, so some positive action was due.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow.  Still a time to be patient in my opinion.  The longer it takes for a top to build, the better the upcoming downside.  I'm still sticking with the theory of getting short for September.  However there is the chance that we rally off of the oversold McClellan oscillator and move well above 1700 on the S&P 500.  I'm not a believer of that scenario but it's possible.  The Bollinger bands on the stock indices are contracting, which implies some type of strong move coming.  You want to be on the right side of whatever happens.  GE was flat on the day after being a bit higher.  Volume remains summer light.  Gold somehow found some buyers today and the futures were up almost $25.  Gold is back above $1300.  The US dollar remains weak for some reason.  The XAU had its strongest session in some time, gaining 7 1/2.  ABX rose 1 1/2, GG added 1 7/8 and NEM shot up by 2 1/3.  Volume was above average.  Price and volume to the upside for the gold shares and that bodes well moving forward.  I have no idea where all the interest for the gold shares came from.  Maybe the seasonal factor is finally kicking in.  One day doesn't make a trend though.  My October ABX calls are back in the black.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Trying to be patient for the September OEX put trade attempt.  I'll most likely let options expiration week pass next week.  The major players are still on summer hiatus.  New highs for the stock indexes with a lower McClellan oscillator would be the ideal shorting scenario.  Regardless, I still say the upside for stocks is limited here.  Gold had a good day out of the blue.  We'll see if it can add to todays gains tomorrow.  The gold shares were stronger and that is usually a good sign.  But it is summer and slow, uneventful trading is generally the rule.  We'll close out the first full trading week in August tomorrow.

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