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Friday, August 16, 2013

We ended the week lower as the Dow fell 30 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  Some of the indicators that I follow are the most negative that they've been all year, so some kind of bounce is expected.  I'll be looking to get some September OEX puts if that happens.  Short term oversold for the stock indices.  The medium term has room to go lower.  Not a lot of fear out there yet so the bottom is still out there somewhere in the future.  An extra week in the September option cycle.  GE was off a nickel and the volume was nothing special.  Holding at the 50 day moving average for now.  Gold was up $10 on the futures and the US dollar was a bit higher as well.  The gold shares did not follow as the XAU lost 1 3/4.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on good volume.  This would be a spot for the gold shares to take a rest and consolidate the recent gains.  Overbought on the technicals short term.  Seasonality is still in golds favor but if the market really starts to fall apart it would probably take the gold shares with it.  Remains to be seen.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well.  The decline has begun and how low do we go?  I certainly don't know.  The negative RSI divergences on the stock indices were correct this time.  I think there is more downside to come.  You can debate the reasons but it doesn't matter.  Trying to profit from whatever outcome occurs is why we play the game.  I'm looking for a bounce to get short.  The ideal scenario would be the McClellan oscillator bouncing back up to near the zero line.  Not a lot of economic data out next week but there will be some Fed speak.  Gold had a very good week and is due to take a pause.  The near term target is $1400 and then the moving averages after that.  But we all know things could change there in a hurry as well.  Right now I'm planning on holding the October ABX calls until September.  But you never know.  I'll be checking the charts over the weekend to figure out the game plan for next week.  It's a summer Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

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