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Thursday, August 29, 2013

The Dow managed a gain of 16 points after being much higher during the session.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive and the volume was light.  I could make a positive case for the stock indices here since we haven't just collapsed.  We are short term oversold.  There also looks to be a five wave down pattern on the S&P 500 daily chart.  But we haven't yet made it through the zero line to the upside on the McClellan oscillator.  So I'm thinking that perhaps the market will wait for the major players to return after Labor Day to begin where it's going for the September expiration.  I would still be cautious.  GE was off almost an 1/8 and the volume was very light.  GE has been in a drift lower since the middle of July.  Gold fell today, losing about $5 on the futures and at least that in the aftermarket.  That wasn't too bad considering the strength that we saw in the US dollar today.  Not sure what that was about but the GDP revision was higher than expected.  The XAU managed a 1/2 point gain.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on average volume.  I still have the October ABX calls and they are still showing a profit.  I have a target in mind but we have yet to get there.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well.  Without a doubt the small stocks have held up better here and that is usually a positive.  We are also in an area technically that turns things around.  But we have to respect the closeness that we are to the zero line in the summation index.  This is an area that we are not usually around.  Hence the cautious stance for now.  We'll close out the month tomorrow.  Gold is overbought on the short term.  Sideways would not be a bad thing here.  The gold shares have come off of their recent highs.  No technical damage has been done to the charts.  It is still a good time seasonally for gold.  But as I have said before if the market tanks here, the gold shares will go along as well.  So interesting times lie ahead.  We'll watch the proceedings overnight in the foreign arena and get ready for Friday.  I'd expect it to be a light volume pre-holiday affair.  

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