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Friday, August 09, 2013

We ended the week on a down note as the Dow fell 72 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  A down week for a change and it could be the beginning of something extended.  The summation index is still heading lower.  However we are getting short term oversold for the stock indices.  Not to mention we had pretty negative readings for the McClellan oscillator and have somewhat only moved sideways instead of much lower.  So I am still going to try and remain patient before getting some September OEX puts.  Again, I already may be too late for this idea.  GE was off a few cents on very light volume.  No trades here for now.  Gold was up a couple of bucks on the futures as the US dollar rose just a bit.  The XAU was up 1 3/4.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on good volume.  It was a decent week for gold and the gold shares as they both came back from selling off.  What that means going forward remains to be seen.  We'll see if there is positive follow through next week.  Perhaps the upside bias seasonal factor for gold is beginning to take place.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I'm hoping to see some kind of upside for the stock indices next week to maybe position myself for the September put trade.  It is expiration week.  Plenty of economic data out as well.  Another run above 1700 on the S&P 500 would fit the bill.  But the market will go where it wants to as usual.  It is also still a summertime market.  So there are plenty of questions that remain in the game.  But I still say that the upside is limited from here and getting short for the September option cycle is the way to go.  Gold and the gold shares managed to hang in there this week.  If my prognosis for lower stock prices ahead comes to fruition, gold and the gold shares will probably go with them.  My October ABX calls are back in the black but I should really think about dumping them next week perhaps.  Something to think about over the weekend.  Plenty of charts to go over as well.  I can say that there are glaring negative RSI divergences in the major stock indexes but not in the small caps.  It's always some type of dilemma.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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