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Tuesday, April 05, 2022

We moved lower today as the Dow fell 280 points on good volume. The advance/declines were better than 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is still moving up but another day like today would change that. The NASDAQ led the way lower and that is a plus for the bears this time around. Todays price action turns the short term indicators down for the S&P 500 but we're still more overbought than oversold. Not exactly sure where we're headed from here. The Fed minutes tomorrow may provide a reason to buy or sell. I'm on the sidelines with regards to the S&P for now. The TRAN continues to drop hard. Gold was off about ten bucks on the futures. The US dollar was up and broke out to a new recent high. Interest rates moved higher yet again. The XAU lost 4 1/8, while GDX dropped 7/8. Volume was average. The short term technical indicators for GDX have rolled over and they have room to go lower. However any recent selling in GDX has been met with buyers and I'm wondering if that will be the case this time around. I may try the GDX April calls here but I'll have to go over things tonight before I decide. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX jumped back above 20 and its 200 day moving average. The short term indicators are beginning to rise but remain oversold. After breaking the trendline from November yesterday the VIX has moved right back above it. So that was a possible false break. We'll know if it was in the coming sessions if we remain above the line. That would spell trouble for stocks with more selling. But we'll have to wait and see what happens. It is a caution sign to be sure. Asia was mixed and Europe generally lower overnight. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

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