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Wednesday, April 06, 2022

More selling today as the Dow fell 144 points on good volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index has stopped moving up and turned lower today. The NASDAQ led the way down and that is not a plus for the bulls. The TRAN continues to drop straight down. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have turned down and are moving lower. There's still room to go before getting short term oversold. The Fed is scaling back the easy money and the market needs time to get used to that. Liquidity is the issue. You may start to hear about a potential head and shoulders bottom being put in on the S&P daily chart. I don't think it will be valid if it does occur. Gold finished flat on the futures after moving both up and down. The US dollar was higher and interest rates were mixed. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves lower on light volume. The short term technical indicators for GDX are now mid-range. I did decide to place an order for the GDX April calls today. It was filled when the gold shares dropped after the release of the Fed minutes. This is a risky ordeal with only 6 days left in the April option cycle. It is showing a small profit. Ideally I'd like to hold this trade until the inflation data due out next Tuesday. However it may get stopped out before then or I may simply decide to sell. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher but closed down from its best levels of the session. The short term indicators here are pointing up. Not sure where it goes from here but the trendline from last November is now still in place. If it holds I'm pretty sure that we won't be going back up to set new all time highs in the stock market anytime soon. But time will tell on that. Europe and Asia were lower overnight. We'll keep an eye on tonights developments.

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