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Tuesday, April 26, 2022

Stocks sank today as the Dow fell 809 points on good volume. The advance/declines were around 5 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving lower. We'll take our cues from there. Yesterday I thought that we would hold in here at the near term support for the S&P. There's still a chance as we have closed today right on it but the tone of things is pretty negative. The S&P is short term oversold and staying that way. Perhaps the big tech earnings can save things here but it seems only a matter of time before we break down. The summation index appears to be heading through the zero line again unless we see a dramatic short term turnaround. At this point I'm not counting on that. The NASDAQ once again led the way lower. Tomorrow will probably tell the story of where we are going from here. Gold was up six bucks on the futures as it tries to hold the $1900 level. The US dollar continued higher and interest rates continued lower. The XAU dropped 3 7/8, while GDX slid 3/4. Volume was average. The gold shares are following the market lower. My GDX May calls are showing a loss. I may just take the loss here and try a lower strike price if we keep dropping. GDX is now short term oversold and this is where it technically makes sense to try the calls. But if the market does collapse as the summation index goes through the zero line, the gold shares will probably head much lower too. Interesting times to be sure. I am still a believer in the gold shares though. If they finish the week around the 36 level for GDX the weekly chart pattern for higher prices will still be in place. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX jumped and is now above 33 as volatilty takes center stage. Short term overbought as well. I'm not sure what to expect here. The weekly indicators here still have room to go higher. Once again tomorrow will be important as we are on the brink of breaking the near term support for many of the major stock indices. Tonights after the bell big tech earnings will give us a clue. With the summation index moving lower it isn't a good sign for the bulls. We'll see. Asia was mixed and Europe generally down in last nights trade. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

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