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Monday, April 11, 2022

Lower to begin the week as the Dow lost 413 points on average volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is now heading lower. We opened with a gap down and never recovered. Probably selling in front of what promises to be a high consumer inflation number tomorrow. Producer prices are due out on Wednesday. The S&P 500 is short term oversold and closed below its 50 day moving average. The NASDAQ led the way down today and that is not a plus. Anything goes tomorrow including a good drop or a short covering rally. Only 3 trading days left in the week. Gold was up ten bucks on the futures but finished well off of the highs for the session. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU was off 7/8 and GDX fell 1/4. Volume was light. It was a one day reversal to the downside for the gold shares as they opened higher and closed lower. Gold up and the gold shares down is a negative for the bulls. I'm still in the GDX April call trade which is still positive for now. GDX is touching the upper Bollinger band and short term overbought. The daily chart is also forming a rising wedge pattern that is usually bearish. I should probably already be out of this trade but I now may hold it until Wednesdays producer prices. We'll see. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX turned around and moved higher. The short term indicators are getting overbought. On Friday the VIX looked like it was implying more buying for stocks but did a complete turnaround. The market goes where it wants. Who knows, maybe the CPI won't be so bad. But I doubt it. Asia was lower and Europe finished slightly down. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

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