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Friday, April 29, 2022

Stocks took a beating today to end the month of April. The Dow fell 939 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were around 4 to 1 negative. The summation index is heading lower again. Oversold and staying that way for stocks and that is never a good sign. The S&P 500 remains oversold and closed at a new low. The NASDAQ continues to lead the way down. It appears that the support will not hold up. Not sure how far we'll go down from here. The employment cost index was higher than expected. The Fed will be raising rates next week. Stocks are being sold regardless of the earnings news. The bearish atmosphere is thick. Yesterdays rally is forgotten. Will anything change next week? The S&P closed below the 4200-4150 zone so it could be a case of look out below. Gold was up six bucks on the futures but was much higher during the session. The US dollar was lower but interest rates continue to rise. The XAU lost 1 1/2, while GDX shed 3/8. Volume was light. My GDX May calls are just about to be stopped out for a loss. Will probably happen Monday morning unless the gold shares rally out of nowhere. I'm debating whether to try this trade again next week or simply head to the sidelines. GDX remains short term oversold and closed below the 36 level which I had pegged as the point it had to hold on a medium term basis. The fundamentals don't look good for gold at the moment either. However the US dollar is very overbought and has moved up in a straight line. Any break there would be viewed as a positive for the precious metal. However if the market continues to collapse it will take the gold shares with it. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX moved right back up and remains overbought. This isn't the usual behavior for the VIX and I'm having trouble figuring it out. It is above 33 again and it usually doesn't stay at a high level for long. That said, if the market does continue lower from here the VIX could easily reach 40 or above. The summation index is moving lower and we are below the zero line. The buying we've seen lately hasn't held up. Plenty to ponder over the weekend. Europe and Asia were higher to finish the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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