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Friday, April 22, 2022

The market got clobbered today as the realization of the end of easy money takes hold. The Dow fell 981 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 5 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving lower and once again headed to the zero line. If we don't turn around soon things will get worse. We just went through the zero line on the summation index in January. But as always the market will go where it wants. Oversold and staying that way for the S&P 500. That's never a good sign as the bears are in charge. The Dow led the way down percentagewise today but not by much. Buyers have vanished. There's nothing to think that Monday will be any different. Gold was off $13 on the futures. The US dollar was higher while interest rates remained steady. The XAU fell 5 1/3 and GDX was off 1 1/8. Volume was good. I did place an order for the GDX May calls but it wasn't filled. I'm leaving it out there for now. Support for GDX on the weekly chart comes in at the downtrend line that was broken recently. This is at approximately the 36 level. GDX is getting oversold on the indicators for the short term. However if the market goes into freefall and through the zero line on the summation index it will probably take the gold shares with it. In that case this trade won't work. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX had a big spike and closed above its 50 day moving average. It is almost completely overbought on the short term indicators. Another day like today would certainly do it. The small stocks here are heading to their recent levels of support. If things don't hold up here soon it will get ugly. I suppose that the fact that we've started to drop before even getting back to the down trend line in the S&P isn't a good sign. The 70 point S&P 500 rally out of nowhere on Tuesday was a classic down market sign. There will be plenty to digest over the weekend. Europe sank and Asia was generally lower to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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