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Monday, April 18, 2022

The market tried to rally today but failed again as the Dow fell 39 points on lighter volume. The advance/declines were around 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is trending lower. My thinking is that we are due for some kind of bounce or rally here but the market will go where it wants. Plenty of bearishness around so it would not be a surprise to start heading the other way. The S&P 500 remains short term oversold along with the other major stock averages. Not a lot of economic data out this week but we will have some Fedspeak. 1st quarter earnings get started as well. On the sidelines with regards to the SPY options for now. Gold rose $7 on the futures today. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU and GDX were both flat on light volume. GDX remains short term overbought. Waiting on a pullback here in order to try the May calls. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower and the short term indicators have rolled over. It appears to be signaling higher stock prices in the near term. The trendline support at 19 is still in place. If we could get back to that line on the VIX along with a light volume rally in the S&P to around the 4600 level, it would set us up for the May SPY puts. For now we'll have to be patient. Asia lower and Europe higher overnight. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

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