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Friday, April 08, 2022

Back and forth was the name of the game today and the Dow ended with a gain of 137 points on average volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is heading sideways. The overall market was weaker than the Dow. Both the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 were lower, with the NASDAQ leading the way. The S&P is hanging around its 200 day moving average and is getting short term oversold. Waiting on the inflation data due out on Tuesday. Option expiration week is on tap and it's also a short week with a Friday holiday. I'm not exactly sure where the S&P goes from here. On the sidelines for now with regards to the SPY. Gold was up $10 on the futures. The US dollar finished little changed after being higher earlier. Interest rates rose. The XAU was up 3 3/4, while GDX added 7/8. Volume remains light here. GDX is right at the breakout level but we'll need to see a pick up in volume to get through there. Getting short term overbought for GDX as well. My thinking is that the gold shares will break out to the upside on Tuesdays inflation report. My GDX April calls are in the black. The risk of holding this trade increases with each passing day as time is running out on the April options. However I'm inclined to hold this trade until Tuesday at this point. I'll ponder what to do over the weekend. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was slightly lower today but the overall market was down. Hanging around the 200 day moving average here and the short term indicators appear to be rolling back down. This imples higher prices coming up for stocks. We'll see. I'll be going over the charts the next couple of days and getting ready for expiration week. The market is still at the mercy of headline risk. Europe and Asia had gains to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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