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Thursday, April 21, 2022

We had a dramatic one day reversal to the downside today as the market opened higher and closed lower. The Dow fell 368 points on good volume. The advance/declines were better than 4 to 1 negative. The summation index is back to moving sideways. The S&P 500 closed below its 50 day moving average. The short term indicators rolled back over and are already in oversold territory. There were more indications from the Fed that the easy money policy is over, which we already knew. Interest rates are going up and liquidity is being pulled back. It's hard for stocks to go up when there isn't any money. We'll see how long this lasts but we continue to be negative on the medium term outlook for now. Gold finished slightly negative on the futures and came back from the worst levels of the day. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The gold shares got slammed, with the XAU losing 8 3/4 and GDX shedding 2 points. Volume was good to the downside and the up trend line for GDX was broken. Not completely oversold for GDX but I will most likely put in an order for the May calls overnight. However the fundamentals for gold are pretty negative at the moment. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX turned around and was higher today. The picture there has changed as the short term indicators have turned back up. The VIX did not make it back to the support line this time around. Not sure where it goes from here. Once again the NASDAQ led the way lower today and that is not a plus. Asia was mixed and Europe generally higher overnight. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

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