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Tuesday, March 19, 2019

It was a one day reversal to the downside for the Dow as it opened higher and closed lower.  The most watched index lost 26 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is moving sideways.  The Dow was up almost 200 points during the session but we got some US/China trade talk babble that drove prices lower.  So that's back in the news again after being put on the back burner.  Which makes tomorrows Fed statement even more of a non event probably.  The NASDAQ was higher on the day so it wasn't a complete washout.  Regardless, I'm still looking for higher prices going forward and any decline will most likely be the chance to get on board before we move substantially over the resistance at 2820 on the S&P.  GE was off a penny on light volume.  Gold rose $5 on the futures and the US dollar was slightly lower.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on light volume.  We are once again close to the up trend line in GDX that began in November.  I've been pretty patient regarding the GDX April calls so far.  I suppose the question now is have we reached the time to do this trade or not?  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Well we're back in headline risk mode as the US/China trade talks are back in the market picture.  But we'll stick with the technicals for now.  The S&P 500 short term indicators are overbought and could potentially roll over here in the short term.  RUT is basically moving sideways here and the TRAN had a bearish daily candle today.  So you can make the case for a roll over here.  But will it be because of the Fed or the tariffs talks?  Or perhaps it won't occur at all.  We'll know more tomorrow if we get some downside follow through.  The break above resistance in the S&P hasn't been convincing just yet.  The short term GDX technical indicators are mid-range so you can make a case either way.  I'll wait for the reaction to the Fed and take it from there.  Unless I change my mind overnight.  Asia was generally lower and Europe higher in last nights trade.  We'll see what the Fed has to say tomorrow.

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