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Thursday, March 28, 2019

Higher today as the Dow gained 91 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is trying to turn around again or at least move sideways.  I certainly didn't have the guts to buy the SPY April calls here but perhaps I should have.  Light volume is always a concern and that's what we've gotten this week.  End of the month tomorrow.  RUT and TRAN were both higher again today and that's a plus.  The VIX is looking somewhat constructive here as well for higher prices going forward.  Another Brexit vote tomorrow but that concern hasn't really affected the market here in the US.  GE was off a few cents on light volume.  Gold found plenty of sellers today as the futures dropped twenty bucks.  The US dollar was higher.  The XAU fell 2 points, while GDX shed 5/8.  Volume was good.  We are almost back to the up trend line from November for GDX at about 22.2.  This will be the moment of truth once again as that line has held up numerous times.  It is also just about the same level as the 50 day moving average.  This is the logical area to try the GDX April calls.  There's still three weeks to go in the April option cycle.  The problem is that the short term technical indicators are not even close to being oversold.  Hence this could be the decline that breaks that up trend line.  I'll be keeping a close eye on it here.  If we stall around the line after todays sharp drop, I'll probably try the calls.  If we continue lower in a hurry, I won't make the trade.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The S&P 500 has been moving sideways this week.  The short term technical indicators are at about mid-range.  I do think that we'll be moving higher from here.  The trouble is that there is no clear technical signal.  I don't want to make this a guessing game.  Sometimes you have to wait and this appears to be one of those types of times.  I'll keep an eye on things as usual, especially the gold shares right here.  But I'm thinking that it's best to let the month end tomorrow and go back over everything this weekend.  That's the plan for now.  Europe and Asia were mixed overnight.  We'll close out the week tomorrow.

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