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Monday, March 04, 2019

Volatility returned today as the Dow fell  206 points on good volume.  It was a one day reversal to the downside.  The advance/declines were only negative though as the overall market was stronger than the Dow.  The summation index is moving sideways.  The Dow was off over 400 points during the session.  The market break that I positioned myself last week finally appeared today.  Obviously frustrating for me from a trading stand point.  We'll have to see where things go from here because the market did stage quite a comeback.  Perhaps sideways is the way we go here for a while but that's a guess as usual.  The short term technical indicators have finally started to roll over now.  GE was up 1/8 on lighter volume.  Gold dropped $10 on the futures as the US dollar was slightly higher.  The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on light volume.  These indexes both opened lower and closed higher for one day reversals to the upside.  They also bounced off of their 50 day moving averages along with their rising trend lines.  All of this makes perfect technical sense but I did not place an order for the gold share calls today.  Gold has broken its up trend line and I'm wondering if the gold shares will follow.  The gold indices did hold up well today despite the loss in gold and that is bullish.  But I'm inclined to wait here to place a trade on GDX due to the poor seasonal time frame at the moment for gold.  However I do feel that the gold shares calls for April will be my next trade.  That's my call at the moment.  Mentally I'm in the frustration mode as the big drop today was what I've been waiting for.  The VIX popped up to almost 17 and made it to the top range of the Bollinger band on a daily basis.  Is there more volatility coming?  It would appear so as one day extreme usually leads to more price movement.  However I'm simply on the sidelines now for the SPY.  I think the next best trade here may be the breakout above the resistance at 282 if it occurs on heavy volume.  Not sure when that will occur but there's only 9 days left in the March option cycle.  Plus after today it looks like things could be ready to turn lower if the sideways trend doesn't hold up.  Asia was higher as the trade deal looks to be just about done.  Europe was steady overnight.  We'll see if the volatility ramps up again tomorrow.  

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