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Friday, March 15, 2019

Higher today as the Dow gained 139 points on very heavy expiration volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index remains in a lower drift trying to turn around.  All you had to do was buy the SPY calls on Monday morning and hold them until the close today as the expiration week positive bias was in full effect.  Easier said than done as Friday was the ideal buy time.  We did make it above the 2820 level on the S&P and closed above it.  However the heavy volume was expiration related and we did fall back off of the highs for the session.  Never the less it looks like we are heading higher.  Unfortunately the option premiums are pretty high with the extra week on the April cycle thrown in.  GE was off 1/3 and the volume was very heavy.  This issue is attracting a lot of attention lately.  Gold was up $7 as the US dollar was lower.  The XAU and GDX were slightly higher on average volume.  I'm still considering the GDX April calls.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX is the lowest that it's been since last October, implying to me that higher prices are still coming.  It closed below 13.  The S&P 500 is overbought now on the short term but that doesn't mean that we can't go higher.  The only near term caveat that is see is that the RUT is not in the lead higher here.  It has been moving sideways.  I'd keep an eye on which way it goes for confirmation of the S&P breakout.  There's still no rush to do anything since we are rolling into the next option cycle.  I missed the March SPY call trade and it's time to move on from here.  I'll check the charts over the weekend to see what looks promising going forward.  Europe and Asia were both higher to close out the week.  It's Friday evening and time  for a rest.

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