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Wednesday, March 20, 2019

We opened lower, got a rally off the Fed but then could not hold it.  The Dow fell 141 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is trending sideways.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow with the NASDAQ posting a slight gain.  The Fed was as dovish as it can get but we couldn't hold the rally.  It looks like the market is trying to roll over here but it hasn't happened yet.  The Dow is rarely the leader for these things but you never know.  The fact that the NASDAQ is holding up is a plus.  The question is what drives prices from here?  Perhaps the US/China trade talks will drive tings from here.  GE was up a few cents but the volume was light.  Gold added $7 on the futures as the dovish Fed drove the US dollar lower.  The XAU rose 1 3/8, while GDX gained 1/2.  Volume was good.  GDX again touched its rising trend line and bounced off.  I did consider getting the GDX April calls today but did not put in an order.  Their value doubled today on the Fed.  It appears that the trend line form November is a key area since it has held now for numerous times.  Perhaps I should simply listen and get long the next time GDX gets there.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Nothing for me to do but wait here as the S&P 500 continues overbought even with todays decline.  Right now it doesn't look like the rise above the resistance at 2820 is for real.  I'll continue to be patient here and see how the rest of the week plays out.  With the drop in rates I would think that it would make equities more attractive but who knows?  The Fed said everything the market wanted to hear today but the rally failed.  Interesting to say the least.  Europe and Asia were generally weaker overnight.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

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