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Tuesday, March 26, 2019

A nice gain today as the Dow rose 141 points on lighter volume.  The advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 positive.  This should turn the summation index back to sideways.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow and the RUT was up as well.  I'm just looking for a spot to buy the SPY April calls but the time may already have passed.  The VIX has come back down from testing the peak that we saw in early March.  The short term technical indicators there have rolled over or are about to.  It's just a matter of the timing to get long as I don't think that a bigger decline is in the cards right now.  GE was up almost 1/4 but the volume was light.  Gold fell $7 on the futures as the US dollar was a bit higher.  The gold shares did not follow as both the XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on average volume.  Waiting for a retest of the up trend line here.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Waiting to see what happens next here as my guess is that we'll be heading to the upside.  The short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 are trying to turn around and I think they'll be successful.  Still plenty of time in the April option cycle so the premiums remain pricey.  But if the timing is right that will all take care of itself.  End of the month and the 1st quarter coming on Friday.  I'm not expecting any earth shattering moves like we saw on Friday but who knows?  For now it's watch and wait but I do favor the long side for stocks at this juncture.  Europe and Asia were higher last night.  We'll keep an eye on things overnight. 

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