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Monday, March 18, 2019

A higher start to the week as the Dow gained 65 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  This should turn the summation index back up.  Pretty much a lackluster session with no major price swings.  We have moved above the 2820 resistance level on the S&P 500 but it seems like more of a grind so far.  For now I'm going to wait on the SPY April calls.  GE was up 1/4 on average volume.  The gold futures and the US dollar finished little changed.  The XAU fell almost a point, while GDX lost 1/4.  Volume was light.  Getting close again to the up trend line for GDX.  I am also waiting here to purchase the GDX April calls but we are not yet oversold.  mentally I'm feeling OK.  The Fed announcement is on Wednesday and the market is most likely biding time until then.  I will do the same.  An extra week in the April option cycle.  I do not expect any surprises out of the Fed so we'll have to see the market reaction to news that is most likely a non event.  We are overbought on the short term technical indicators for the S&P.  However the VIX is very low and does not imply that volatility is about to make a comeback.  Perhaps if we can hang around the 2820 level for a while that will be enough to propel us forward eventually.  That's a guess as usual.  For now. it's sit tight on the Fed.  Europe and Asia were higher overnight with the exception of the DAX.  We'll see how it goes tomorrow. 

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