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Monday, March 25, 2019

We did not see the downside follow through to Fridays debacle as the Dow rose 14 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were about even.  The summation index is heading lower.  The market ignored the results of the Trump/Russia investigation that could have been viewed as a positive.  I would have expected some sort of rally on the news of no collusion or the release itself now being out of the way.  We did bounce around today with the selling holding up at around the 2790 area on the S&P.  I am considering getting some SPY April calls here but it's tricky.  The technical indicators have gotten back to the midway point, so they're not completely oversold.  RUT finished higher today though and that has been the leader.  GE was off a dime on light volume.  Gold has buyers as the futures were up almost $10.  The US dollar was flat.  The XAU added 1 7/8, while GDX gained 1/2.  Volume was good.  Overbought here and I'll have to wait to see if we get back to the up trend line.  Another missed trade here but at least now we have an idea of what to do and the negative seasonal factor will be gone.  Didn't have any effect this time around anyway.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The inverted yield curve is another topic for discussion in the market these days.  Recession is the prediction there.  Possible, yes but the question is when?  It is inevitable that another recession will occur.  The flight to bonds recently seems to imply that we're already there.  The only reason I'm stating this is because it affects the stock market and out trading.  The Fed has already said that rates are done rising for now.  That's a positive backdrop.  We're still in a seasonally positive period for stocks as well.  I'm beginning to think that Friday was a one day overreaction to the 3 month bill being higher than the 10 year note.  But that's guess for sure and only time will prove if it's right or wrong.  I'm still going to take a long look at getting some SPY April calls tonight.  Asia and Europe were both lower overnight with Asia dropping in line with Fridays US drop.  Europe not so much.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight price action.

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