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Friday, February 14, 2014

The rally lives on as the Dow climbed 126 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The S&P 500 is almost back at a new all time high.  The summation index continues to the upside.  Make no mistake about things here, we are very overbought.  Some kind of pull back or consolidation is overdue.  But expiration week is coming up and that usually has a positive bias.  So maybe things will hold up here for another week.  Two weeks ago it was the end of the world and the market shrugged that off pretty convincingly.  The trend is up.  GE was up almost 1/3 but the volume was light.  I still don't see any trade here that I'd be interested in.  Gold just continues to rally as well, the futures rose $18.  The US dollar was lower once again today.  That relationship is now working inversely as it has in the past.  The XAU was up another 2 3/8.  The gold shares are overbought as well.  ABX, GG and NEM were up from 1/4 to 1/2 on good volume.  Although these shares need a breather, they could simply continue higher as well.  I sold the February ABX calls that I had for a 160% profit.  This trade as well as the GDX call trade could have been much better.  I was both a day early buying and selling them.  The profit could have been another 100% on both.  Or maybe more depending on if they keep rallying next week.  It is a frustrating game.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We are now almost back to the old highs in the S&P 500.  The small stocks have better leading lately but they were laggards today.  I would expect some kind of consolidation here.  The volume is getting lighter on the rally as well.  Gold had a great week and is now above its 200 day moving average.  The technicals short term are overbought.  Medium term there is still room to run on the upside.  Ditto for the gold shares.  I'll be looking to try the gold shares again on any weakness but will probably go out to the April option cycle.  The two trades just completed were profitable but a better job must be done by me.  Money was left on the table.  After yesterdays very strong move higher the expectation was for follow through today which we got.  I should have held both positions overnight and exited this morning.  That would have been the smarter play.  I chose the cautious route by selling out one of the positions yesterday.  It was the wrong choice.  However those trades are now completed and all that matters is the next trade.  Perhaps a short term OEX put attempt next week?  I'll consider it over the long holiday weekend,  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

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