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Monday, February 10, 2014

A quiet start to the week as the Dow added 7 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow.  Short term overbought here for the stock indices.  The summation index has turned around.  Not a lot of economic data out this week, with retail sales on Thursday as the number with the most market moving potential.  Janet Yellen, the new Fed head, will be speaking tomorrow and Thursday.  The market will be looking for a reason to move off of that most likely.  I'm still hearing a lot of bear chatter so perhaps it's time to look for higher prices.  I was expecting a retest of the recent lows but sometimes that just doesn't happen.  GE was off 1/8 on average volume.  A pretty bearish candlestick on todays daily chart.  If GE is still the leader, it's saying lower prices are coming.  Gold found a bid today as the futures rose over 10 bucks.  The US dollar was a bit weaker.  The XAU gained 2 7/8 and is at its 200 day moving average.  GDX was up 3/4.  ABX ahead by 3/8,  GG gained 1/2 and NEM rose 2/3.  Volume was nothing special here.  My ABX and GDX February calls are now showing a slight profit.  I'm pretty sure I will be exiting these trades this week.  It looks like I'll be waiting for the ABX earnings on Thursday morning.  Unless we get some sort of surprise between now and then.  If gold can get above $1280 perhaps we can make a run at $1300.  Hasn't happened yet.  The stock indexes have had a nice bounce.  Is it the beginning of the next leg higher or simply a snap back to the recent broken up trend line?  That is the question that needs to be answered.  The TRAN was negative today and that isn't bullish.  However not all the major indexes broke their up trend lines from last year.  It's not a clear picture for me of what to expect next in the stock market.  Gold started out the week in good shape for the bulls.  Ditto for the gold shares.  Plenty of time left in the week though.  The short term technicals have moved back to the upside but we are close to being overbought again.  Needless to say I'd like to exit the current trades with a profit.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight action and wait to see what the new Fed head says tomorrow.

1 comment:

Unknown said...

market will be looking for a reason to move off of that most likely. I'm still hearing a lot of bear chatter so perhaps


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