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Monday, February 03, 2014

The market started out the month getting slammed once again as the Dow fell 326 points on very heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 6 to 1 negative.  The summation index continues lower.  There cannot be any doubt now that the trend is down.  The question is how far will we go?  The recent consolidation above 1770 on the S&P 500 was a flag and now we have broken that support.  We are right at a daily up trend line that began last September.  That probably won't hold but it could provide some near term support.  Or not.  A better chance for support is probably at the 200 day moving average around 1700.  Of course owning the February OEX puts was the way to go here and I blew it.  I wasn't fast enough and that is a problem that must be faced.  GE got pounded and lost 3/4 on very heavy volume.  It appears to be the last leg of a 5 wave down move for GE.  GE is also at its 200 day moving average here.  So there is a chance that the decline for GE is coming to its conclusion.  We'll see.  Gold found buyers again as the futures rose 20 bucks.  The US dollar was weaker on the session.  The XAU however lost 3/4.  ABX was flat, GG lost 1/8 and NEM fell over 1/2.  Volume was average.  I did purchase some February GDX calls today.  This trade already looks like a mistake.  My theory is that GDX is consolidating its recent gains before moving higher above the 24 level.  We are also right at the up trend line that began in early 2014 for GDX.  So the gold shares will either bounce from here or the up trend there is over for now.  But with gold moving higher and the gold shares moving lower it isn't looking like a bullish case near term.  Mentally I'm definitely feeling frustrated for not taking advantage of a down trend that I saw was coming.  That is why I'm afraid that todays GDX trade was done because of that.  I think that maybe I just wanted to get something going and that it isn't really the best idea at the moment.  The trading game is always fought within.  Perhaps the GDX trade will work out but I will not be surprised if it doesn't.  It will be interesting to see just how far we head down here for the stock indices.  I would not advise trying to pick the bottom.  Wait for the positive divergences first.  We are a long way from that at the moment.  Volatility is really ramped up right now.  You really have to be nimble on any trades taken out there.  The trading environment has changed.  The time to get long the stock indexes will be when all you hear in the media is bearishness.  We aren't there yet.  We'll keep an eye on the foreign markets tonight and go from there.

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