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Wednesday, February 05, 2014

Marking time today as the Dow fell 5 points today on good volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow.  The market did come back from an early sell-off though.  Pretty oversold on some of the short term technical indicators but the tone remains negative.  All eyes will be on Fridays employment report.  We could go either way I guess.  The market reaction, not the number itself will be the key.  If the recent decline was what is called a measured move, it is probably for the most part over.  If it is something more then there will be a trip down to the 200 day moving average which equates to 1710 on the S&P 500.  GE was off a nickel and the volume was good.  Still holding the 200 day moving average here.  Gold was up 5 bucks on the futures, while the US dollar lost just a bit.  The dollar did come off of its lows though.  Gold fell off of its highs.  The XAU fell almost 1 1/8.  ABX dropped over 1/2, GG and NEM fell 1/3.  Volume was lighter than it has been.  GDX lost over 1/3 and my GDX February calls are showing a loss.  I also got a buy signal on one of my indicators for ABX today and I purchased some February calls there as well.  They are showing a loss too.  Perhaps I am late for the recent gold run and that was a concern with the GDX trade.  ABX does have earnings coming out next week but I probably don't want to wait that long.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I would expect tomorrow to be another day of indecision for the stock indexes.  There is no reason to establish big trading positions before the employment report.  The summation index continues lower and we should probably take our cues from there.  I still may try the February OEX puts if we make it back to the 1775 level on the S&P 500.  Although I'm not exactly sure that is the right move.  Gold came off of its highs and the gold shares underperformed the metal itself.  That is definitely not bullish action and I am holding gold share calls.  Could simply be another trading mistake on my part.  We'll see.  Chinese players returning yesterday did not move gold.  Once again I may be too focused on gold when there are better opportunities elsewhere.  But I did receive a short term buy signal for ABX today so I had to follow it.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.         

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