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Thursday, February 06, 2014

The Dow climbed 188 points today on good volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive.  Is this the start of the next leg up or simply short covering ahead of tomorrows employment report?  That is the question.  There is a chance that the decline has ended but we will have to wait and see what develops tomorrow.  I'd like to say that I have a good feel for what is going to happen but I don't.  The summation index is still heading lower but we are getting close to being back up to the zero line in the McClellan oscillator.  Usually though, at some point the recent low will be tested.  GE was up 3/8, the volume was OK and the 200 day moving average has held the decline in GE so far.  GE led the way down and it appears a 5 wave move lower has been completed.  No trades in mind here for GE yet.  Gold was flat on the session after being higher intra day once again.  The US dollar was a bit weaker today.  The XAU and GDX were basically flat on the trading day.  ABX, GG and NEM had slight fractional moves one way or the other on very light volume.  A waiting game today for the gold shares.  My GDX and ABX February calls are showing losses.  Tomorrow will mean a lot for these trades but it may not be the end.  We've got the new Fed head speaking next week and that should move things.  Plus earnings due for ABX on Thursday.  Technically the gold shares have worked off the recent overbought condition on a daily basis.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I thought today might be a waiting game for the stock market but we got a rally instead.  Could the market know more than we do?  It usually does.  But we will still have to see what happens tomorrow.  Gold has tried to rally the past 2 days and has been pushed back each time.  That is not bullish action by any means.  A move lower on Friday would not be a good sign for the February gold share calls that I own.  However we will have to wait and see what transpires tomorrow.  We'll keep an eye on the overseas action tonight as we await tomorrows all important employment report.  Should be an interesting day.

1 comment:

Unknown said...

see what develops tomorrow. I'd like to say that I have a good feel for what is going to happen but I don't.

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