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Thursday, February 13, 2014

The market continued higher today as the Dow rose 63 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 positive.  The day started out negative as we were down 100 points at the open.  The retail sales number was softer than expected.  But the decline didn't last long and it was off to higher prices.  The summation index continues to the upside.  Still short term overbought and staying there.  The smaller stocks are showing better relative strength here and that is a positive.  It still looks like we could see new all time highs in the major stock indices in the days to come.  Expiration week is coming up and it usually has a positive bias.  GE only gained a nickel and the volume was average.  Still no trades in mind here for me.  Gold was up another $5 to reach the $1300 level on the futures.  The US dollar had a sharp drop today and the weaker retail sales data probably had something to do with that.  The gold shares made an impressive comeback as the XAU rose 3 2/3, with GDX up 1 1/8.  ABX added 1 1/8, GG higher by 7/8 and NEM up a buck.  Volume was good for the gold shares and the price action negated yesterdays bearish candlestick pattern.  ABX and GG had lousy earnings but rallied anyway.  Earnings numbers can be viewed any way the market feels like it.  The market reaction always means more than the numbers themselves.  Pretty overbought for the gold shares here but technically higher prices are implied.  I did sell the GDX February calls that I had even though they could go higher.  The gain was 235%.  That is why we trade options.  You cannot beat the percentage gains in such short amounts of time.  That trade lasted less than two weeks.  I left open the February ABX call trade because it appears to just be breaking out of a congestion zone.  However I may just get rid of that trade tomorrow as well.  There are only five days left in the current option cycle and we are coming up on a holiday weekend.  Mentally I'm feeling a lot better that I was yesterday.  The first trade of the year has a nice profit and I am off on the right foot so far in 2014.  The stock indexes are having an impressive rally and have squeezed out all of the shorts.  The upside move probably has legs to go on but I would not be surprised by some near term weakness.  I though that was going to happen today after we opened but money came in strong.  We are back above the 50 day moving average in many of the major stock indices.  Gold has made it to $1300.  The 200 day moving average lies at $1310.  That should provide some resistance.  A continued weaker US dollar would be bullish for gold.  The gold shares however are above their 200 day moving averages and closed on the highs of the day.  We should see follow through upside tomorrow.  I'm not exactly sure what I'll do with the remaining February ABX calls.  There is a lot of work involved with trading but it is certainly worth your time when it pays off.  It is not easy however.  It is one of the toughest games in the world to play.  The battle, as always, is with yourself.  We'll see if the foreign markets follow the US lead higher and close out the week tomorrow.

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