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Tuesday, February 18, 2014

The overall market continued higher but not the Dow, as it fell 24 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is still moving to the upside.  Overbought for the stock indices here no matter how you look at it.  I do believe we will see some downside this week but the question is when?  The TRAN was weak today and perhaps that is a sign of things to come.  Or maybe it is reflecting the recent surge in the price of oil.  I'm not sure.  I doubt that I will be attempting any OEX trades this week but you never know.  GE was off about a dime and the volume was light.  The daily candlestick chart here is bearish and we haven't been able to get back above the 50 day moving average.  I still have no GE trades in mind.  Gold was up $3 on the futures but off of the last sessions highs.  The US dollar continued lower.  Gold is overbought as well and due for a rest.  Ditto for the gold shares.  I'll be looking at the April and May gold share calls in the coming weeks.  The XAU was up 7/8.  ABX and GG were little changed, while NEM gained 1/3.  Volume was light.  I am especially keeping an eye on ABX because once it gets through the resistance at $21-$21.50, there is nothing holding it back from reaching the $27.50-$30 level.  But like I said, the gold shares are overbought here.  Patience is required.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Expiration week is here and the positive bias was present in the overall stock indexes today.  I do think higher prices and new all time highs in the S&P 500 are coming soon.  However as always I could be wrong.  Perhaps a huge double top is being put in place on some of the major averages.  Some of the smaller stock indices could be forming bearish megaphones.  I do not think that this is the case but we must be aware of all of the possibilities.  Gold is pretty overbought and a drop to the $1280 level of support would be favorable for the overall bull trend here.  March is historically the worst month for gold so maybe waiting for then to purchase the next batch of calls is the way to go.  We'll see.  Three days to go in the February option cycle.  The sidelines is maybe the safest place to be.  Of course nobody makes any money without trades but you don't lose any either.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight action and take it from there.

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