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Friday, February 07, 2014

The employment numbers came out weak but the market didn't care as the Dow rose 165 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive.  Is the decline over?  It sure looks like it after today.  However I still think the recent lows will be tested at some point in the next couple of weeks but I could be wrong.  Yesterdays positive action in the stock indices was a precursor for todays action after all.  I guess the lesson there is the market always knows more than we do.  The summation index should turn around after todays numbers.  It looks like we have already gained back half of the decline.  Resistance is at the 50 day moving average for the S&P 500.  Around the 1810 level.  GE was up 1/4 and the volume was lighter than it has been recently.  The 200 day moving average has held for now.  Gold was only up $5 on the futures and a little more in the aftermarket.  The US dollar was lower after todays jobs report.  The XAU gained 2 3/4.  ABX added 3/8, GG up 2/3 and NEM rose 1/2.  Volume was average.  GDX was up 3/4 as well.  My positions in the February ABX and GDX calls are back at break even.  The gold shares were a bit better performers than gold itself today and that is a minor positive.  Looks like I may hold on for the ABX earnings report next week after all.  The technicals for the gold shares short term have turned back up.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Well it looks like all the shorts have been squeezed out of this market for now.  The negative tone in the media hit a high point early in the week and that kind of activity must be payed attention to.  We'll have to see how bullish things get over the weekend.  More important will be if we get follow through to the upside next week.  The new Fed boss will be speaking during the week and that will be the next prime mover in my opinion.  I expect a dovish stance so that should be supportive to the stock market.  We'll see.  Gold held up OK today.  The Bollinger bands on the daily charts are converging and that means a big move is coming here soon.  Which way is the question.  We'll probably find out pretty soon.  The bands are getting closer on the gold share indexes as well.  Yellens talk next week should move gold as well.  Plus the ABX earnings report due Thursday will get things going in that stock as well.  Plenty to look forward to.  I'll be checking the charts over the weekend as usual.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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