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Wednesday, February 19, 2014

Lower today and it wasn't completely unexpected.  The Dow fell 90 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were just shy of 2 to 1 negative.  The market was higher during the session but fell in the last couple of hours.  That isn't bullish.  Perhaps the action yesterday in the TRAN was foretelling.  Regardless, where we go from here is what matters.  The summation index is still heading higher.  We can make a case for either direction here but I do not have any trades in mind right now.  I'll let the market decide what to do here.  Today was the day if you wanted to try a short term OEX put trade in the February cycle.  Only two days left and plenty of risk.  GE was off 1/4 and the volume was average.  Looks like a rollover here to the downside on the daily charts.  Gold dropped $4 on the futures and $10 more in the aftermarket.  The US dollar was higher today.  The XAU shed 3 1/3.  We were overbought on the gold shares so a decline was due.  How far it goes and how long it lasts are the questions.  ABX off 5/8, GG lost a buck or so and NEM fell 3/8.  Volume was light and that is a plus.  We have some up trend lines for the gold shares now and we will have to see if they hold or not.  That would be the next logical spot to try the calls again.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We'll be looking for downside follow through tomorrow for the stock indices.  I'm still in the camp that we hesitate here and then go on to new highs.  But we will have to let the market tell us what it is going to do.  The technicals are overbought and that condition needs to be relieved.  Once that happens we should move higher.  That's my guess at the moment.  Gold is pretty much overbought on a short and medium term basis.  A decline back to the $1280 level would take it back to the newly formed up trend line.  That would also get rid of some of the recent bullishness.  It would be a longer term positive in my view.  I'm looking at the April and May gold share calls for the next possible trade.  We'll watch tonight to see if the foreign markets follow the Dows lead lower.

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