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Tuesday, February 04, 2014

A bounce today after yesterdays drubbing.  The Dow gained 72 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index continues lower.  I still think we are going to go lower here but I'm starting to hear everyone in the media turn bearish.  So perhaps most of this part of the downside activity has already happened.  Some of the technical indicators are blown out to the downside and rightfully so.  Still plenty of time in the February option cycle and we do have the employment report on Friday.  If we somehow make it back up to the 1775 level or so on the S&P 500, that would the spot to try the puts again.  Yesterdays blow out volume may have been a short term exhaustion for the bears.  GE was up 1/4 and the volume was good.  Hovering at the 200 day moving average here.  Watch GE for clues to the overall market direction.  That idea has worked so far.  Gold fell $8 on the futures as the US dollar was a bit higher.  The XAU was up about 2/3.  ABX, GG and NEM had slight fractional moves one way or the other on lighter volume.  GDX turned around during the session and was up almost 1/3 on lighter volume as well.  My February GDX calls are showing a slight loss.  I'm looking at the April calls now for the gold shares.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Checking the stock index charts, the downside formation here could be a measured move.  If that is the case it would be an ABC move and would be about over.  It is possible but the future market action will tell us.  I'm still leaning on getting some index puts if we get more near term upside.  But the risk now is higher on the short side in my opinion and the volatility has spiked.  Again, being nimble here is the preferred path.  Gold might get moving again tomorrow with Chinas market opening back up.  The recent 2 week price action in the XAU and GDX is possibly a bullish flag continuation from the recent move higher in January.  We should find out soon.  Not exactly sure how long I will hold the GDX call position.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight action and take things from there.

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