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Tuesday, February 11, 2014

A blast to the upside as the Dow climbed 193 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were over 3 to 1 positive.  The summation index is heading higher.  It looks as though there will be no retest of the recent lows.  A V bottom appears to be in place.  We are short term overbought now and due for a pause though.  The new Fed chief sounded just like the old one and the market liked that.  My guess now is that we will be reaching new all time highs for the S&P 500 at some point before spring.  I could be wrong.  GE was up 3/8 on average volume.  No trades in mind for me here.  Gold continued higher as the futures rose $15.  The US dollar finished the session little changed.  The XAU was up 3 2/3 and broke above its 200 day moving average.  GDX gained almost a point and is now above its 200 day moving average as well.  ABX up 1/3, while GG and NEM added 3/4.  Volume for the gold shares was good as we have convincingly moved out of the recent congestion zone to the upside.  We are short term extended here and a pause is due here as well.  My February GDX calls are showing a nice profit.  The February ABX calls have a slight gain.  ABX earnings are out Thursday morning.  They will make or break that trade.  As for GDX, I may exit it tomorrow if we get some more upside.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The S&P 500 has broken through all of the Fibanocci retracements from the recent low.  That tells me that the decline is over and higher prices are still in the near future.  The small stocks are acting better here as well and that is bullish.  We will have to wait for the next bearish set up and rolling over of the summation index to try the index puts.  Gold got through $1280 with good volume.  It looks like we are heading up to the $1300 level.  The gold shares are overbought but could have more room to run.  ABX earnings on Thursday could be a catalyst one way or the other along with the retail sales data.  The gold shares have risen about 10% in 3 days and that is a lot in a short amount of time.  The technicals are pretty overbought as well.  Plenty to think about overnight.  We'll see if the foreign markets follow the US lead and if there is any upside follow through to the gold rally. 

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