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Friday, February 21, 2014

A drift lower today as the Dow fell 30 points on light volume despite the option expiration.  The advance /declines were positive.  The summation index continues higher.  The stock indices are still consolidating here to determine if we break out to new all time highs or roll over for a double top.  I'm in the new high camp but will let the market tell me which way it's going to go.  Rolling into the March option cycle now, so the premiums will be expensive.  It is kind of a wait and see mode for now.  GE was off 1/8 or so on light volume.  GE began to fall ahead of the overall market in the previous decline.  It has already begun to drop again.  We'll see if that means anything this time around.  Gold was up $6 on the futures as the US dollar was a touch lower.  The XAU was off 1/2.  ABX and GG were little changed, while NEM fell over a buck on good volume.  The street did not like the earnings report.  NEM is the under performer here.  I still want to be long the gold shares at some point following a decline there.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Just a waiting game for now with regards to the stock indexes.  The short term technicals remain overbought here.  More sideways action followed by an upside breakout is the scenario that I'm anticipating.  That's my best guess at the moment.  The gold shares remain overbought as well but on both a short and medium term basis.  I'm looking for some type of decline in March to set up the April or May calls.  However the strength in the precious metal complex has been better than expected, so it could remain overbought for a while.  Gold has attracted some media attention here though and that could signal at least a short term top.  ABX just got a buy recommendation yesterday and we haven't seen that in quite some time.  ABX is right up against some resistance that has been in effect for about a year.  I do want to own some calls there on the breakout.  I'll be going over the charts this weekend to try and come up with a near term game plan for the markets.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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