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Monday, April 22, 2013

We begin the week to the upside as the Dow gained 19 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  We'll see how the week plays out but I do not expect any huge rallies.  Sideways to lower is my scenario going forward for the stock indices.  1st quarter GDP is the big economic report of the week on Friday.  GE was off 3/8 and the volume was very heavy.  This is a canary in the coal mine.  GE is a huge multi-national company.  It portends a global slowdown with its recent price action.  Gold gained $25 on the futures as the US dollar was off a touch.  Gold has made quite a comeback after last Mondays meltdown.  The XAU has hardly come back though.  It gained about a point and a half today.  ABX off 1/8, GG up 2/3 and NEM rose 3/8.  Volume was average with the exception of ABX which remains very heavy.  Even a weekend article in Barron's couldn't get the gold shares really moving to the upside.  The October ABX calls I own are barely in the black.  Earnings are due for Barrick on Wednesday.  That should get things moving good one way or the other.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It is a wait and see attitude with respect to the stock indexes for now.  I'm looking at some OEX puts at some point in the May option cycle.  I'm still a believer that we are in a topping process.  Gold has made a nice bounce back from last weeks carnage but the gold shares haven't followed.  Gold itself should head back down to retest the lows of last week.  Just waiting for the ABX earnings at this point.  We'll keep an eye on the overseas action tonight and go from there.

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