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Thursday, April 18, 2013

Heading lower as the Dow fell 81 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  Up trend lines have been broken on some of the major stock indices.  I'm sticking with a sideways or down scenario for the stock indexes going forward.  The S&P 500 has yet to break its up trend line from November but that should come in time.  Same for the Dow.  I'll be looking at OEX puts on rallies for now.  GE was off a touch on average volume.  Heading lower here and we get the earnings out tomorrow.  Gold was up $10 on the futures as the US dollar was off slightly.  The XAU gained 2 7/8 for a change.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains to the upside on good volume.  The volume for ABX remains extreme.  The October ABX calls I bought yesterday are in the black.  Waiting for the snap back with the gold shares on this trade.  Extremely oversold here.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Plenty of earnings still to come and the background environment remains uncertain in the US with the recent bombing.  The reasons for buying stocks here do not outweigh the risks going forward at this time.  That is my guess at the moment.  Gold itself is trying to hold in here but I think lower prices are still in the near future.  We'll get through the option expiration tomorrow and take it from there.      

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