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Wednesday, April 03, 2013

Back to the downside today as the Dow fell 111 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were about 4 to 1 negative.  Rumblings from North Korea and some weak economic data are todays excuse for the decline.  But we stick with the technicals.  Up trend lines from November on the daily charts of some of the stock indices have been violated to the downside.  I'm sticking with the thesis that the rally is over.  The summation index is heading lower.  Perhaps we will get a snap back to the violated lines on some of the indices.  But I'm going with the trend is now lower going forward.  GE was off 1/3 and the volume was good.  A bearish engulfing pattern has appeared on the daily charts.  We're right at the 50 day moving average.  Gold fell again in what looks like a liquidation of assets.  The futures were off $22 and the US dollar was a bit lower as well.  Gold has to hold the $1550 level or we are going to go a lot lower.  The XAU fell 5 1/2 as the gold stocks have been decimated.  ABX lost 1 1/2, GG off 1 1/8 and NEM dropped 1 1/3.  Volume was heavy.  The gold shares have dropped much further than I thought they could go.  There is opportunity here in my mind.  But it could be the attempt to catch a falling knife and that usually ends badly.  I sold the April ABX calls that I've had for a while at a 95% loss.  Plus it was a bigger than usual loss because I had more contracts than usual.  So it was a poor trade with horrible tactics and trade management.  Actually there was no trade management and that was the problem.  I might try the May calls next.  Or not.  Perhaps it's best to try and simply regroup here.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Trend lines have been violated for some of the stock indices but not the major ones such as the Dow and the S&P 500.  However with the Dow transports, the Russell 2000 and the NYSE indexes all having broken their up trend lines, it's safe to say that the decline is underway in my opinion.  We'll see how it plays out from here.  The next market moving data should come in the form of the employment report on Friday.  I'd expect tomorrow to be a wait and see affair.  Gold looks like it is in a free fall and needs to hold the $1550 level or we will really start to see something.  That's a guess as usual.  My trading account for the year is now solidly in the red but there is plenty of time in 2013 to turn that around.  It's only the beginning of April.  However if my trading tactics don't improve, it will be another losing year.  We'll see how the overseas markets react to the US sell-off and take it from there.     

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