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Monday, April 01, 2013

A weaker start to the month of April as the Dow fell 5 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative as the overall market was much weaker than the Dow.  The stock markets are still in holiday mode for today as some foreign markets remain closed.  Still in a sideways rut for the stock indices.  Todays action should turn the summation index lower.  Perhaps we will be in a holding pattern until Fridays employment report.  Or maybe todays overall stock weakness is the start of the decline that I've been looking for.  I could continue on with other scenarios but the markets will go where they want.  GE was basically flat on the day with light volume.  We're at the 50 day moving average on the daily charts.  No trades in mind here.  Gold was up $3 on the futures and it should have been more considering todays drop in the US dollar.  These two have not had the usual inverse correlation lately.  Also when there has been a flight to safety there is more strength in the US dollar vs. the gold futures.  Gold remains an under performer.  The XAU fell 1 3/4.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on light volume.  My April ABX calls are on their way into oblivion.  Unless there is a dramatic turnaround, this trade will be another loser.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I still say we are on the verge of a drop for the stock indexes.  The negative technical divergences remain in place.  The Dow has been the leader lately and that is not a positive going forward.  I could be wrong but I am sticking with a negative bias towards the stock market for now.  Gold is dead money but at least we are done with the historically worst month of March for the precious metal.  The gold shares remain big laggards.  We'll keep an eye on things overnight and take it from there.   

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