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Friday, April 19, 2013

Expiration Friday is behind us as the Dow gained 10 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 positive.  The Dow was affected by the poor showings of IBM and GE on earnings reports.  The overall market was much stronger than the Dow.  However it also could have been expiration related.  So we will have to see how things shake out next week.  The S&P 500 is trying to hold on at its 50 day moving average.  I'm still a believer that the rally that began in November is over.  We're building or have built a top.  I'll be looking for places to buy puts, most likely with the OEX.  GE had a gap to the downside and fell 7/8 on very heavy volume.  If GE is a bellwether for the overall market it would be bearish.  The technicals on the weekly chart here have now rolled over.  Some good support at the $20 level for GE.  Gold was up $3 on the futures and a bit more in the aftermarket.  The US dollar gained a bit today.  The XAU rose 1 1/8.  ABX, GG and NEM had slight fractional moves to the upside on heavy volume.  The volume for ABX remains very heavy.  Earnings for ABX due next week.  The October ABX calls I have are still in the black.  There was extreme volume for these options yesterday and the open interest expanded vastly.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well.  The weekly chart technicals for most of the stock indices have rolled over.  The weekly Dow candlestick chart shows a bearish belt hold pattern.  That doesn't meant that we can't move higher from here but it does mean the odds favor more downside going forward.  But that could all change next week.  We're moving on to the May option cycle.  The weekly gold and gold share charts show extreme carnage.  That doesn't mean that we can't go lower though.  I still think that going out to October on the ABX calls will be a winning trade.  However I've been wrong on most of the ABX call trades for a year or so.  I'll be going over the charts again this weekend.  Not a lot of economic data out next week but we'll get the 1st quarter GDP on Friday.  We'll also have the backdrop of the recent attack in Boston.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

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