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Friday, April 26, 2013

It was a mixed market to close out the week.  The Dow was up 11 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The NASDAQ and the S&P 500 were lower.  The short term technicals are still more overbought than oversold for the stock indices.  I still believe that we are building a top.  Only a high volume upside breakout would negate that idea.  Hasn't happened yet.  GDP was a bit weaker than expected but wasn't really a market mover.  Plenty of economic data out next week along with a Fed meeting and an ECB meeting.  I'll be looking for a spot to buy some OEX puts before the employment report.  GE was up 1/4 on good volume.  Perhaps the recent decline there is over but it is too early to tell I think.  The 200 day moving average provided support.  Gold fell on the futures today, off 8 bucks despite a weaker US dollar.  The XAU lost 3 2/3.  ABX down 1/2, GG lower by a buck and NEM fell 7/8.  Volume remains overly robust here.  My October ABX calls are still in the black.  I'm still a believer in this trade but don't know how long that I will be holding it.  The daily technicals for the XAU remain weak and the last 3 day candlestick pattern is bearish.  NEM reports earnings on Monday.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Are we heading up to new highs on the stock indexes?  Perhaps.  The weekly chart technicals look like they are trying to turn back up.  Overbought here short term though.  We'll have to let the market again tell us what to do.  If we get a light volume rally at the beginning of next week, I'll be inclined to buy the OEX puts.  Any other scenario will likely have me on the sidelines.  Gold has had a very nice comeback after the crash of last Monday.  Some backing and filling here would not be unexpected.  Ditto for the gold shares.  Plenty of charts to focus on over the weekend in preparation of a game plan for next week.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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