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Tuesday, April 16, 2013

The Dow made a nice comeback today, up 157 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were about 5 to 1 positive.  Still plenty of buyers on the dip.  We'll see how long this snap back lasts or perhaps it is the start of another leg up.  Some indices moved to new highs recently but the smaller stocks did not.  That usually isn't a positive going forward.  We are also heading into a seasonal period of under performance for stocks.  So we'll see what happens.  I still think it is a time to be cautious given the recent events.  The threat of terrorism combined with a collapse in commodities cannot be considered bullish in my opinion.  GE was up 1/4 on average volume.  Earnings due on Friday.  No trades there for now.  Gold had a modest bounce, up $26 on the futures.  This despite being very oversold and the US dollar was much weaker today.  The precious metal began to drop again in the aftermarket.  The XAU dropped 3/4.  ABX off a buck, GG was flat and NEM was off 1/8.  Volume remains very heavy for the gold shares.  ABX continues to get hammered.  I do have an open order here for some October ABX calls.  This could simply be another mistake among the many that I have had in the past year trading the calls on this stock.  However the collapse here is overblown in my mind and I believe that there will be a substantial bounce in the gold shares before October.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Expiration week is upon us and volatility is on the rise.  The economic data is coming in mixed.  So we'll see.  If the market can recover here and move on to new highs, that would be very bullish.  I do not think that is the upcoming scenario.  But what do I know?  Gold is in a free fall.  I peg support at $1200 after viewing the longer term charts.  Support for silver is at 20 bucks.  If those levels doesn't hold then the bull market in precious metals is done in my humble opinion.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.      

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