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Wednesday, April 10, 2013

The market has spoken as we broke out to the upside today.  The Dow gained 128 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive.  This should move the summation index back to the upside.  The S&P 500 broke above the resistance at 1570 to close at 1587.  The market had every opportunity to decline in the past couple of weeks but did not.  Now we have broken out to all time highs and there is no resistance going forward.  We'll see how high this rally can go.  I'd expect it to last into the April expiration which ends on Friday of next week.  GE was up 1/2 on average volume.  The 50 day moving average acted as support and we are rallying from there.  GE should take out the old recent higha at around $23.75.  The gold futures fell over $25 on the Fed minutes.  The US dollar was up a bit as well.  The XAU was back to the downside by 4 3/8.  GG was off 7/8 and NEM lost a buck both on good volume.  But the story of the day was the carnage in ABX.  It collapsed 2 1/4 on extremely heavy blow out volume.  Apparently a court in Chile has stopped production on one of the mining projects that ABX has in that country.  The mine is co-owned with GG but that stock did not go down like ABX.  I do not know why.  Last night I adjusted down my order for the May ABX calls and that was filled right away this morning.  I placed a stop loss order for this trade and it was hit later in the day.  That's something that I really haven't seen in a while.  The loss was around 55%.  Not a lot of money in this trade but it shows the risk in trading individual issues vs. the indexes.  Of course that works both ways as there could have been some good news out of ABX and it would have out performed.  I guess now we know why ABX has been such a laggard with respect to the other gold shares lately.  This dramatic downside action should get all the rest of the sellers out but there could be an extended period of consolidation before it start to move higher again.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The stock indices have begun the next climb.  The Dow transports haven't yet confirmed the move but they should in the coming days.  Probably too late to get some OEX calls.  I guess it's the sidelines for now.  The sharp contraction of the Bollinger bands forewarned of a huge move coming.  Take note of that for the next time.  Perhaps buying both the puts and calls would work out for an overall profit.  Another losing trade in the ABX calls.  Knowing the underlying situation now certainly doesn't help.  Perhaps I should have just listened to the technicals as this was the weakest issue for the mining shares.  Of course hindsight is always correct.  I don't know where I'll go from here with the gold shares.  It's time to regroup.  The earnings for these companies will be out later this month.  They remain oversold.  We'll see if the foreign markets follow the Dow higher tomorrow.   

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