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Tuesday, April 02, 2013

Back to the upside today as the Dow gained 89 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative though.  The Dow transports were down pretty good today.  The NYSE composite and the Russell 2000 small caps were lower as well.  So the Dow is masking what I believe is the beginning of the downside that I'm expecting to see here.  I'm not sure what the catalyst lower will be but it should arrive shortly.  Unless I am completely off in my prognosis.  That is always a distinct possibility.  GE rose 1/4 on light volume.  No trades there for now.  Gold took a hit today as the precious metal futures fell $25.  The US dollar was up today.  The XAU got clobbered, off 5 1/4.  ABX down 3/4, GG lost a buck and NEM led the way down by 1 1/2.  Volume was average.  The gold shares are already very medium term oversold and they are still falling.  Unless there is some kind of turnaround this week, the gold rally could be coming to an end.  My April ABX calls are dead.  I was certainly way off on this trade and should have dumped them much earlier in the trade.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired.  Money continues to pour in late in the trading day for the stock indices.  That's usually a positive going forward.  I'm still looking for a decent decline to start here any day now.  Perhaps the employment report will be the catalyst.  But who knows?  If we continue higher everything that I have been thinking is wrong.  Gold took a big drop today and I'd expect some follow through downside tomorrow.  I don't think there is anything that can save my ABX trade.  I'll chalk it up as another loser and regroup from here.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

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