Pageviews past week

Friday, August 05, 2011

That was quite a week as the major stock indices basically fell apart at the seams. In the middle of the summer no less. We closed the week with a gain of 60 points on the Dow. However the advance/declines were about 3 to 1 negative. Volume was heavy once again. The overall market was weaker than the Dow. The summation index continues to head lower in a hurry. We are still very oversold. The employment report was better than expected but it didn't even matter. The market is now moving simply on price. Nobody knows what next week will bring. I can say from past experience though that there will be at least one huge up day. A 3 or 4 hundred point oversold, short covering rally. Pinpointing the time is the problem. GE was flat today on very heavy volume again. Perhaps we are now sold out here. We'll find out next week. I'll mention the VIX today for a change, as it reached a level not seen since the spring of 2010. It may mean the worst is over for now, depending on what happens next week of course. That's just a guess as usual. Gold lost $7 on the futures but gained it back in the aftermarket. The dollar was lower today. The XAU lost a point but was much lower early. The gold shares were mixed on heavy volume. ABX fell 3/4 and my September calls are now in the red. I am now considering just dumping them next week if we see some rally in the markets. I'll think about it over the weekend. Mentally I'm feeling OK. There are a couple of trading scenarios for next week depending on how the week begins. I think shorting whatever rally appears may be the best course of action. I do not think we will see a rerun of this week. I could be wrong. We'll have to see what develops over the weekend. I will be checking my longer term charts to see what these type of conditions in the past have led to. Usually it's a snap back rally followed by a retest of the lows. We'll see. It's Friday afternoon and definitely time for a break.

No comments: