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Monday, August 29, 2011

We started out the week with a bang as the Dow rose 254 points. The advance/declines were 10 to 1 positive. Volume was light however. I do not trust light volume rallies but you can't argue with price. The summation index is now moving to the upside as well. If we continue higher into Wednesday I'll probably try the OEX puts before the employment report. We'll see. Approaching short term overbought on the stock indices. GE was up 1/2 on light volume. We had a gap to the upside here but I'm not completely sold that this is the beginning of something big or sustainable. I could be wrong and often am. I'll wait to purchase the January calls here. That is my next trade in GE. Gold fell today as the flight to safety trade waned. We lost $5 on the futures and a bit more in the aftermarket. That is misleading though since we rallied strong in the aftermarket on Friday. Taking that into account it was more like a $35 loss on the day. The US dollar didn't do much today. The XAU lost 2/3. ABX down 3/4, GG fell 3/8 and NEM was flat on the day. Volume light here as well. My ABX calls are somehow still showing a profit but this trade is really getting long in the tooth. I don't know if I can hold on until the employment report on Friday. Also if my OEX put scenario is correct, the gold shares will probably drop with the overall market. Mentally I'm doing OK, slept well enough. The stock indices have made a new recovery high from the recent sell off and closed near their highs for the day. We should see some follow through tomorrow. We do have the last day of the month and beginning of the month positive money flows coming up this week. So we'll see what happens. I get the feeling that gold is going to take a rest here and that won't bode well for the ABX calls. Less than 3 weeks to go there and one less day due to the Labor Day holiday. I'll be taking some extra time to consider this trade tonight.

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