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Friday, August 19, 2011

It was a downer Friday and we closed at the lows for the week as the Dow lost 173 points. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative and the volume was good. The summation index has turned around and is heading lower. The Dow is trying to hold at its 200 week moving average. Some stock indices have already broken through to the downside. We're oversold here on a weekly and daily basis. However in severe declines being oversold doesn't lead to market rallies. We got a bounce and now are right back at the recent lows. If the transport are any indication of what's to come, we'll be heading lower next week. I have no OEX trades in mind right now but I'll ponder things over the weekend. GE was down 1/4 on good volume. Oversold here as well. I'm still looking out to the January options here but in no hurry. Gold continues to find money as it gained $30 on the futures. Traded another $30 higher in the aftermarket but gave all of those gains back. We're at record highs again. Parabolic and that never ends well. The US dollar lost some ground today. The XAU was up about 4 points but closed off the highs. ABX up 7/8, GG gained 1 3/4 and NEM rose 1 2/3. Volume was good to the upside. My ABX calls are still in the black. Overbought here now but staying there. 4 weeks to go in these options. It is getting harder for me to stay in this trade but I'm a believer in higher prices before they expire so I'll hold on for now. The Gold/XAU ratio is still off the charts in the buy zone. So we'll see. Mentally I'm doing OK. I'll have to check the charts again over the weekend to see I can figure out where we go from here. If the stock indices start to free fall again, it will probably take the gold shares with them. I have time left in the ABX call trade but I do not want to see the gains turn into a loss. It isn't easy winning or losing in this game. I'll think about it over the weekend and go from there. It's Friday afternoon in the summer. Time for a break.

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