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Friday, August 26, 2011

Volatility was the main product from the Bernanke speech as the Dow closed higher by 134 points. We were down over 200 points early. The advance/declines were 5 to 1 positive and volume was good. The stock indices are deciding which way to go here. I get the feeling that higher prices are coming before we head back down again but I could be wrong and often am. Technically we're not overbought or oversold. A few more up days and we'll be short term overbought. The ideal scenario would be for the beginning of next week to be positive, setting up an OEX put trade for before the employment report on Friday. We'll see. That's the idea at the moment. GE was up a bit on average volume. Plenty of time for the January calls there. Gold was on the move again. The futures gained $35 and it was up another $30 in the aftermarket. The dollar was weaker today and that was without Bernanke saying anything about interest rates. The XAU gained 5 points. I would have liked to have seen more of a gain there. ABX was up a buck while GG and NEM both rose 1 1/3. Volume was lighter than lately again. My ABX calls are still in the black. 3 weeks left in the September option cycle. ABX is on its way to being overbought again. I'll need to consider dumping these calls next week. We could have some beginning of the month money flows at the end of next week and that could be supportive. However gold really had a crazy week and is still very overbought. There is a lot of volatility premium in the gold share options and any slowdown in price movement will rapidly diminish prices. Plenty to consider going forward here. Mentally I'm feeling OK. It was the first positive week in the stock indices in a month. So it looks like maybe a short term bottom has been put in place. We'll see. Gold was all over the place, including an over 100 point down day. I'll be checking the charts again over the weekend to decide which path to take next week. But for now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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